Scenarios Assessment

The INFU project has progressed from an initial collection of Signals of Change in ways of doing innovation via amplifications and Mini-Panel Visions to fully fledged scenarios of future innovation landscapes. From all these Foresight activities, nine dimensions of change in innovation patterns emerged. In the Scenario Assessment we point out opportunities and threats emerging from these changes in innovation patterns for three different realms that are pertinent to the quality of life of European citizens:

• living and working conditions, social fabric (society) 

• business environment (economy) 

• quality of the earth’s ecosystems (ecosystems).

The assessment is based on insights from the INFU visioning and scenario building activities and two assessment workshops5

 

One workshop took place in Marseilles on 7th of July 2011 in the context of the LIFT conference. In this workshop selected challenges arising from the INFU insights were assessed in small working groups and later presented to the plenary. 

 

The main INFU scenario assessment workshop took place in Karlsruhe on 23rd of May 2011. As the scenarios were dominated by macro-level aspects, the workshop did not – as originally envisaged – examine the full scenarios but focussed on the underlying innovation patterns. A world-cafe setting was used to assess negative and positive implications of these innovation patterns.

 

In the Scenarios Assessment report we discuss the resulting assessments along the nine dimensions of change in innovation. These dimensions of change are common patterns and underlying features of the developed innovation visions of the INFU project. Section 2 gives a short summary of these dimensions. In section 3 the assessment of opportunities and threats for society, ecosystems and business are discussed along these dimensions of change. Section 4 sketches overarching observations with a view towards the next INFU work package that is exploring implications for policy strategies. The Annex provides a detailed documentation of the scenario assessment workshop.